The Institute for Population and Social Research (IPSR) Mahidol University in collaboration with SEA Junction and Migrant Working Group organized a policy recommendation forum titled “14.4 million Thai workers disappeared by 2060. Can migrant workers replace them?” on 18 August 2023 at SEA Junction, 4th floor, Bangkok Art and Culture Centre (BACC).
A IPSR Mahidol University study on immigration and migrant workers by Emeritus Professor of Demography Apichat Chamrasritthirong notes that according to projection data that into the end of the 21st century, Thailand will be the second country after Japan, that has 50% less than the current population, which is less than 30 million people only. This represents an economic crisis and standard of living in Thailand if the country cannot integrate foreign professional workers, immigrants/refugees, and migrant workers into the working population.
In 2001, the United Nations proposed a replacement migration policy as a demographic tool for countries that have low birth rates. Developed countries whose birth rates are currently lower than the replacement level, such as the United Kingdom, Germany, the United States, Canada, Australia, have already increased their population at the end of the 21st century through relaxed immigration. Because these countries have always had clear opened immigration policies and targets long before the United Nations proposed such a policy, they were able to import much needed skilled and low-wage workers. Hence, Thailand needs to implement a replacement migration policy by setting a quota of 200,000 foreigners per year to obtain Thai citizenship in 80 years. With this, the Thai population will reach 16 million people, to make up for the 50% loss in the working population. And the immigrants accepted does not have to replace all 100% because Thailand can use other policies, such as creating a society that integrates seniors more seriously into the workforce by postponing the retirement age, as well as better utilizing of technology like robotics and artificial intelligence, or even sharing labor resources for ASEAN regional integration.
Professor of Political Science Sakkarin Niyomsilp added that Thailand needs millions of skilled foreign workers during this next 10 years in order to meet the needs of high-tech industries. For Thailand achieve its development goals of increasing high wage jobs, Thailand needs to accept more permanent skilled immigrants. In the past, Thailand implemented a Smart Visa program to attract skilled workers before the outbreak of COVID-19, but however, it was not successful. Later, a Long-Term Resident Visa (LTR Visa) policy was issued to try to attract about 1 million skilled foreign workers and high-income earners to the country in order to stimulate the economy and promote national development. However, the LTR visa program did not achieve its target goal. This was due to many limitations. Thailand needed to proactively improve its immigration policies to attract more foreigners, especially in higher level skills in the targeted industries with much more convenience to achieve the country’s development goals. Rather than focusing on high-income groups for the flexible visa program only, Thailand needs to consider how qualified immigrants can stay longer and have a path towards adjusting status toward permanent residency or pathways to citizenship.
Mr. Adisorn Kerdmongkol, Coordinator of the Network of 20 civil society groups Migrant Working Group agreed and said that according to the forecast by the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDB), the working-age population is likely to decrease from 43.26 million in 2020 to 36.5 million in 2040. Thailand will be an aged society, in which the future may affect the economic development process of Thailand that still depends on a huge amount of migrant labor force. The dependency is especially clear in the industrial sector, agriculture, and the service sector, especially in elderly carework. Using migrant workers from neighboring countries is one option that provides quality work. Additionally, these workers are an important human resource that enables the Thai economy to grow continuously. Therefore, ongoing reform of immigration law to facilitate the employment conditions of migrant workers and the reform of the permanent residence system in Thailand and the consideration of granting Thai nationality to migrant workers that are here to stay are things that Thailand should urgently accelerate.
Economist Associate Professor Dr. Chalermpol Chamchan revealed Assessment of the situation of migrant children in Thailand and the impact of COVID-19 found that migrant children did not have adequate access to health services, education, food and nutrition. In addition, what is particularly worrying is the dropout rate from the education system, their inability to be part of the health insurance system birth registration, not to mention that many migrant children are in-risk due to the lack of a caretaker and/or have become victims of domestic family violence and have had their rights violated. Therefore, Thailand needs to develop a comprehensive database of migrant children. A state registration system that integrates information from all relevant agencies. Furthermore, there needs to be a clear policy to increase their quality of life so that migrant children who are the sons and daughters of migrant workers can access education and health. Ultimately, this group of migrant children will be one important workforce that drives the development of Thailand into the future.
